Cart & Checkout Recovery Calculator

Abandoned = checkouts started × (1 − completion rate). Gross abandoned value = abandoned × AOV. Recovered = abandoned × recovery rate; modeled recovery revenue = recovered × AOV, where recovery rate = recovered abandoned checkouts ÷ abandoned checkouts in the same cohort. Counts are expected values, so a fraction of an order is normal.

The gross abandoned value is not lost revenue. Most people who abandon were never going to buy, which is exactly why the recovery rate, not the gross figure, is the number that matters.

Treat the modeled recovery as an upper bound on incremental lift. Unless your recovery rate was measured against a holdout or control group, platform-attributed recoveries include buyers who would have returned on their own. And if a recovery flow is already running, your completion rate probably already includes those recovered purchases — don't apply a recovery rate on top of it. Use a pre-recovery baseline, or model only the additional lift you're weighing.

Two more limits: this uses your normal AOV as a proxy for abandoned and recovered orders, and recovered orders often come in lower after a coupon, so weigh that when reading the result; and it counts revenue, not profit. Scope: this models abandonment after checkout begins — shoppers who abandon their cart before starting checkout aren't included. The recovery rate is your assumption and varies widely by store, offer, and how fast the sequence fires.